October 16, 2021

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Why it is so difficult to model the evolution of an epidemic

The latest results were released on October 8 Computers of groups of models feeding public officials in the future of the Govt-19 epidemic. With one “Cautious Hope”They do not expect a significant recovery before the start of 2022. But it all depends on the climate, vaccine protection, the effectiveness of vaccines, the presence of variations, the relaxation of the French … One and a half years, the difficulty in understanding epidemics and the warning that traditionally introduces these results summarizes: “These scenarios are made on the basis of incomplete data and uncertain assumptions. (…) The paths described depend on the assumptions made; If the assumptions are not fulfilled, the observed dynamics may differ from the predictions. “

“We are often told that our models predict everything in the opposite and that they are ineffective. Recognizes Vitoria Golisa as a model for the National Institutes of Health and Medical Research (INSERM), whose work informed the general conclusion from the onset of the epidemic. But they help us to understand what can happen under different assumptions. “ With the intention of “These models lie so bad things don’t happen”, The researcher insists.

Also read: These models anticipate infection

The measures determined by the public authorities, taking into account the predictions, could have avoided the worst situations, and at times during epidemics, the samples seemed to be distracted by a number of uncertainties. Or in the characteristics of the virus and its variants, it is difficult to estimate its transmission in real time. Or on the behavior of the French (restraining gestures or relaxation, dangerous behavior or excessive precaution, etc.), which is difficult to model and anticipate, whereas they are central to assessing the speed of the spread of the epidemic. Or, again, in political decisions, the time chosen by the models for their calculations never falls.

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January-February 2021: It’s hard to catch a breakthrough

The 29 JanuaryModels from the Institute Pastor and Inserm are releasing a note describing possible conditions in France at the end of winter. The last variation came, says Alpha. Current growth is expected to continue and only a new control can control the epidemic. But, after a few days, the infection subsides rather rapidly. “Our samples were measured in hospitals, but the impact of the curfew is still unknown.”Vitoria underscores Golisa.

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