May 26, 2022

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The market will come out of recession due to peak inflation: Evercore ISI

The market will come out of recession due to peak inflation: Evercore ISI

The market may be down in its last innings.

According to Julian Emmanuel of Evercore ISI, stocks should start rising due to peak inflation.

He cites the positive trend going back to the last time stocks and bonds fell together: 1994.

“The market has kind of caught up, and there’s been a lot of sideways swing,” the company’s senior managing director told CNBC.fast money“Monday.” There was a lot of downside.”

It paved the way for an epic market penetration over the next four years.

“At the end of the day, the earnings were going on,” Emmanuel noted. “That’s what we see when we think about 22 and 23 because we don’t think there will be a recession.”

Emmanuel sees the standard 10-year treasury bond yield This year ended at 3.25%. The yield started the week at 2.85%, hitting the highest level since December 2018.

bull market Expect strong consumer spending to support the economy.

“The margins didn’t shrink in the balance because the pricing power was there,” Emmanuel said.

However, optimism on Wall Street is at a 30-year low.

Emmanuel hints at the latest investor sentiment survey from the AAII Institute. In the week ending April 13, the bears outnumbered the bulls by about three to one. Emmanuel sees the results as a major contrarian indicator.

“It’s a question of can you manage what’s already in the price from an asset market perspective,” said Emmanuel. “As difficult as external conditions abroad are and certainly slow in China now, the American consumer is still healthy.”

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As the street delves into earnings season, it doubts the will of corporate America Give inflation forecasts.

“You’re not going to hear that from the companies,” Emmanuel said. “They don’t have to take that risk guidance.” “We don’t think they would be too careful because they really haven’t seen the tangible evidence themselves.”

Emmanuel has 4800 year-end goals on Standard & Poor’s 5009% jump From closing on Monday.

Not giving an opinion